The ceasefire brokered between Iran and Israel on June 24, 2025, resulted to be a sigh of relief for the region as the conflict was escalating into a full-scale war. It started with Israel’s attack on Iran’s suspected nuclear facilities in Isfahan on June 13, to which Iran responded by attacking Israel’s military bases near Tel Aviv on June 15. Finally, USA, backed by European Union and Qatar, stepped in to control the situation by brokering a cease-fire between Israel and Iran on Tuesday, June 24. Besides, Iran’s president acknowledged the ceasefire and hailed the end of a 12-day war.

The ceasefire is a temporary pause, not a lasting peace, with underlying hostilities and nuclear tensions unresolved.

Yet, to say this ceasefire is peace would be dangerously naive. It might be called a pause, but not a settlement; a pause that takes the International community in lulling risk of smugness while the root cause remains. The ceasefire will only be beneficial if it catalyzes serious and inclusive diplomatic efforts; otherwise, it may lead to an even more lethal escalation of violence.

The Iran-Israel rivalry is deeply rooted and structured in the history of mutual hostility and clashing strategic vision. Since 1the 979 Islamic Revolution, Iran refers to Israel as an illegitimate occupier of Muslim land (Palestine), and Israel views Iran’s nuclear and regional ambitions as a grave threat. These antagonistic dynamics have only deepened in recent years, especially following the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) after the US withdrew in 2018 under President Donald Trump.

According to the report of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran is said to have accumulated over 122 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60% purity, as of May 2025, a level dangerously close to the 90% required for weapons-grade material. Despite being a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Iran has faced stringent sanctions that have crippled its economy and development.

On the other hand, Israel, which is not a signatory of NPT, possesses at least 90 nuclear warheads, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) 2024 yearbook. The recent developments prompted Iran on July 7, 2025, to approve a law to halt cooperation with the IAEA. This move is an attempt by Tehran to restart its damaged nuclear program.

Iran’s nuclear program advances amid halted IAEA cooperation and ongoing regional proxy activities.

This uneasy balance is even more intriguing by Iran’s regional proxies. Groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq are seen to have strong ties with Tehran, and the transfer of weapons didn’t stop even after the ceasefire. According to the Critical Threats Project (CTP) in late June 2025, satellite intelligence reportedly detected drone shipments from Iran’s Bandar Abbas port to Hezbollah-controlled areas in southern Lebanon.

On the other hand, Israel also tried to deepen its regional connections with Arab states under the Abraham Accords, signed in August 2020. According to the June 2025 report of Israel Broadcast Authority, the White House wants to expand the Abraham Accords to states like Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria to control the hostilities between Iran and Israel. This can further isolate Iran.

People on both sides have paid a huge price. According to the report of (HARANA, a Human rights activist in Iran, 610 people have been killed in Iran by Israel’s air strikes between May 20 and June 10. According to the Israel Ministry of Health, Iranian air strikes have killed 29 Israelis and injured over 3461 residents. This mutual devastation demonstrates that neither side can achieve lasting security through force alone.

Moreover, there is a risk of spillover with escalation spreading to Baluchistan province of Pakistan as Iran-linked Jaish al-Adl militants called on Sunni fighters to join a “regional resistance” on June 13, further destabilizing an already volatile border. Despite these dangers, the ceasefire is spreading false calm is the Western capitals; however, staying quiet is not peace. There is an urgent need for engagement as restraint is not enough. The European Union, United Nations, and neutral Gulf states like Qatar and Oman must convene a Middle East Regional Security Dialogue-not merely to prevent war, but to address its causes.

Israel seeks regional alliances through the Abraham Accords to isolate Iran strategically.

To promote a longstanding peace, there must be a mutual freeze of missile deployments, shared airspace coordination, and transparent nuclear monitoring. Reviving the elements of the JCPOA, even as an interim agreement, could create the diplomatic breathing room needed to de-escalate. Without such steps, this ceasefire will serve only to rearm both sides for the next round.

Diplomacy is a necessity as the Middle East cannot afford another war, which can further disrupt the global energy market. The ceasefire brokered in June 2025 should not be mistaken for a final resolution. It is an alarm that states must alter the progression before it reaches catastrophe. The gunfire could be momentarily stilled, but the fuse remains lit; this is the time for bold, sustained diplomacy.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not represent the views, beliefs, or policies of the Stratheia.