The year 2025 hails in an era of continued uncertainties with hosts of queries and few definitive answers. In 2024, over 1.6 billion voters used their democratic right to vote in different regions, predominantly to express disapproval of the incumbent political parties. The electorate made its choices, often motivated by sentiments of anger, discontent or trepidation.

The list of ousted leaders include American Democrats, British Conservatives, Macronism in France, the Portuguese left and PTI in Pakistan. Even incumbent dispensations who managed to retain power have emerged considerably weakened, as evidenced by the electoral setback faced by the Shigeru administration in Japan, alongside the necessity for coalition governance in India, Pakistan and South Africa.

The second Trump presidency necessitates recalibrating international relations, particularly amidst US-China competition and global conflicts.

The focus has now shifted to the anticipated policies and the ramifications of the newly elected agendas, particularly of established and emerging powers of the world. To what extent will the unpredictability associated with Trump’s second term manifest and affect the geostrategic and geo-economic developments in the world? How will the US-China competition, that threatens to escalate into a trade and technological confrontation play out and impact the various ongoing conflicts in the world? How will new institutional trajectory for the European Union (EU), characterised by historically low levels of parliamentary support, shape EU’s policy orientation and political voice? Will new political dispensations in South Asia result in any meaningful breakthrough or the deadlock would continue unabated, especially in the Pakistan-India? How will the explosion of new technologies including AI affect the future military, political, social and economic orientation of the world? Answering these questions at this juncture would be premature, we can however, make some considered conjectures.

The aftermath of COVID-19 has resulted in an increasingly digitalised, more indebted and individualistic global environment, wherein discordant responses among major powers have become more pronounced, leading to divergent climatic, economic, and geopolitical objectives. In this context, not only do policies clash, but so do the narratives that underpin them. Long-standing social and cultural divisions have deepened, manifesting in phenomena ranging from cultural conflicts to struggles over information control and the proliferation of algorithmically generated bubbles on social media platforms as evidenced in the elections in 2024.

2025 therefore, looks set to embody a period characterised by strong gesticulation and a focus on individualism. The world may not only witness the rise of new leaders but also the emergence of unusual political actors like Elon Musk who represents a formidable global power, possessing a political agenda and private interests that many democratic governments struggle to navigate. Political analysts believe that the myth surrounding the narcissistic victor has been reinforced by electoral outcomes across the world, representing a triumph of ego over integrity and charisma, a phenomenon some critics refer to as “egopolitics.”

In view of these changing trends in political domain, the upcoming Trump presidency necessitates a recalibration of international relations, as global geopolitical dynamics, ongoing conflicts, notably in Ukraine and the Middle East, US-China competition and the urgent need to address climate change will hinge on the policies and actions of the new US administration. These developments also exert an influence on Europe characterised by weak leadership and fragmented parliaments with the Franco-German partnership, the linchpin of European integration, now more fragile than ever.

The spectacular fall of Asad regime in Syria at the end of 2024 significantly changed the geopolitical landscape of Middle East and beyond. Russia has definitely emerged as a pivotal element connecting recent developments in both Syria and Ukraine, underscoring the necessity for any diplomatic initiative to engage with Moscow. In this context, while discussions regarding a ceasefire are anticipated for 2025, a comprehensive peace agreement appears elusive.

The international geopolitical environment will also play a pivotal role in shaping the future of Pakistan-India relations. The strategic interests of major powers, including the United States, China, and Russia, will inevitably influence bilateral dynamics. The United States has historically leaned towards India in its regional strategy, particularly in light of rising Chinese influence. Conversely, Pakistan’s close ties with China, exemplified by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), present a counterbalance to Indian dominance in the region.

2025 signifies the failure to keep global warming under 1.5°C, with climate efforts stagnating as geopolitical priorities shift elsewhere.

As we enter 2025, the evolving nature of international alliances could either exacerbate tensions or create opportunities for dialogue. If the United States and India strengthen their partnership, it may compel Pakistan to reevaluate its foreign policy strategies. Conversely, if China and Pakistan deepen their ties, India may feel further isolated, perpetuating a cycle of mistrust. For Pakistan and India to improve their bilateral relations in 2025, several pathways could be pursued: dialogue and diplomacy; confidence-building measures; addressing core issues; and regional cooperation. The possibility of any of these options resulting in meaningful progress, however remains a distant dream.

The realm of technological dynamics, the competitive landscape between the United States and China is projected to intensify in 2025. The resurgence of technological competition and escalating global tensions has rekindled the interest of major technology firms in securing defense contracts. The agreement reached in April 2024 between President Biden and President Xi Jinping, which aimed to “develop AI in the military in a prudent and responsible manner”, may thus be rendered obsolete under the new Trump administration. With Trump presidency the ongoing semiconductor conflict may intensify. However, the phenomenon of hyper-technification extends beyond military applications, increasingly permeating various sectors of governance across numerous nations. The implications of the new political majorities in the United States and the European Union for technological governance remain uncertain.

Only time will tell which nations will effectively navigate the flux and gradual erosion of the global order in 2025. The Global South is poised to maintain a highly mobilised geopolitical presence, amidst the strengthening of alternative institutional frameworks that are expanding in influence and visibility, albeit without achieving consensus on a reformed or revisionist global order. Within this context, Brazil is preparing to assume leadership of two significant international forums in 2025: BRICS+ and COP 30. Meanwhile, Africa is evolving into a testing ground for a multi-aligned global landscape, characterised by the involvement of new actors such as India, Gulf nations, and Turkey, which are now both competing with and complementing traditional powers like Russia and China.

Climate change challenges are expected to further exacerbate in 2025. Last year was the warmest on record, marking a pivotal moment in the climate crisis, as it will be the first instance in which the global average temperature surpasses pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5°C. This occurrence signifies a significant escalation in the climate emergency and highlights the failure of efforts to maintain global temperatures within this critical threshold. At COP29, a Global North influenced by Trump’s electoral victory and a political agenda that prioritises inflation and energy prices over climate action chose not to engage in the mitigation battle. International efforts to combat climate change would be further undermined should Trump opt to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement once again, as he did during his initial term.

As global efforts to mitigate climate change stagnate and U.S. leadership falters, China is expanding its ambitions and influence. In 2025, considerable hopes are pinned on China’s energy transition and its newly adopted role as a voluntary financial contributor to the agreement reached in Baku. Experts suggest that China’s coal consumption and CO2 emissions may peak in 2025, five years ahead of its stated target.

China’s energy transition and peak coal consumption by 2025 may reshape global climate and economic strategies.

The advancements in climate policy undertaken by China not only bear significant implications for the planet but also align with the nation’s economic and energy interests. Part of China’s post-pandemic economic strategy has involved fostering the development and deployment of renewable energy sources, which emerged as the leading sector contributing to the country’s economic growth in 2023.

Issues surrounding immigration and forced deportations will also aasume Centre stage in 2025. Immigration has been a pivotal element of Trump’s political trajectory, and during his second presidential campaign, he committed to executing the largest deportation initiative in history. The modalities of this initiative remain uncertain, raising questions about the potential for orchestrated deportations and the real implications of such policies on the United States labour market.

Deportation practices are no longer exclusive to the Global North. Iran is contemplating mass deportations of Afghan nationals, while Turkey has fortified its deportation framework with substantial financial support from the EU. Tunisia has also been implicated in executing illegal “collective expulsions” of migrants, funded by the European Union. Concurrently, Egypt has been engaged in extensive arrests and coerced repatriations of Sudanese refugees for several months.

The EU member states are expected to submit their national implementation plans for the new Pact on Migration and Asylum by 2025. Although the pact is slated to take effect in 2026, Spain has advocated for the early utilisation of new border control measures and migrant distribution tools by upcoming summer. However, certain member states are already contesting the pact, proposing an alternative model that facilitates the transfer of migrants to detention facilities located in non-EU countries deemed safe. The ongoing conflict in Gaza, which has resulted in the forced displacement of 85% of its population within its first year, underscores the profound shortcomings of international law in both humanitarian and asylum contexts.

Migration policies and deportation practices in 2025 expose profound shortcomings of international law in addressing humanitarian crises.

Among the myriad of uncertainties, the one thing analysts seem to have consensus on is that in 2025, perceived or real fear of different nations will become a dominant dynamic influencing policies within both migration and international relations.